The 2016 Republican Party Primary
Even
though we are only one year removed from our most recent election, we can’t
help but look forward to the next presidential election in 2016. Barack Obama’s
second term will have come to a close and Obama will be unable to run for a
third term. Thus, the race will be between a new candidate from both the
Democratic and Republican parties. Each party will have to choose a candidate
before there can be a race, however. Today, I’m going to examine who I believe
are three most likely candidates for the Republican presidential nomination.
Chris
Christie is the governor of New Jersey who just recently won his reelection, as
I pointed out in my last blog entry. Christie has plenty of traits that will help
him in the 2016 election. He is seen as a moderate by many in the United
States. The fact that he is a Republican governor in a traditionally Democratic
state demonstrates this. People also like Christie’s straight-shooting
no-nonsense personality. In a world filled with politicians who speak in the
most politically correct ways possible, it can definitely feel refreshing to
listen to Christie speak straight. Christie might have trouble in the
Republican primary election, however. He has recently drawn flak among his own
party members for complimenting Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy and his
status as a moderate might alienate him among other conservatives in the
primary.
Rand
Paul is a senator from Kentucky who draws considerable support from the Tea
Party. Paul is very popular among the right-wing of the Republican Party and is
regarded as the face of the Tea
Party; having Tea Party support will help him tremendously in the primary
election. He is also the son of famous libertarian Ron Paul; this connection
will surely help him draw votes from libertarian voters across party lines. However,
I think that Paul’s tea party label will be detrimental to his success in a
general election. In order to win, Paul would need to attract independent and
even some Democratic voters; being labeled the face of a far-right political
group does not make this an easy process.
Finally,
there is Marco Rubio, a tea party senator from the state of Florida. Like Rand
Paul, Rubio is known for his affiliation with the tea party, which is helpful
in consolidating the conservative voting base. Rubio’s biggest advantage, in my
opinion, is his minority status. Rubio is a Cuban-American and will be able to
sway a large number of minority voters. In my opinion, the minority voting gap
is the GOP’s biggest problem right now; Rubio will be able to use the GOP’s
greatest weakness as his greatest advantage. Rubio has done a lot of work
regarding immigration policy in the United States; though this will help draw
minority voters, this will also turn off several conservative voters in the
primary election.
I
think Chris Christie is the GOP’s best bet to win the 2016 presidential
election. If the Republican Party nominates anybody but Christie then the party
is shooting itself in the foot. Rubio and Paul are solid candidates for the
primary elections where it is advantageous to be farther to the right on the
political spectrum. However, I think that they will be seen as too extreme by
the general voting populace and will fail to defeat their Democratic opponent
if they receive the nomination. Chris Christie is seen as a moderate and as the
Republican Party’s best shot at taking the White House. However, the political
world is a fluid one, and anything can happen between now and 2016; how could
have thought that a junior senator from Illinois could upset the heavily favored
Hillary Clinton in 2008? The 2016 Republican Primaries are anybody’s game.
The Godfather, Aquaman, and The Filibuster. I can dig it.
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