The 2016 GOP Candidates

The 2016 Republican Party Primary

Even though we are only one year removed from our most recent election, we can’t help but look forward to the next presidential election in 2016. Barack Obama’s second term will have come to a close and Obama will be unable to run for a third term. Thus, the race will be between a new candidate from both the Democratic and Republican parties. Each party will have to choose a candidate before there can be a race, however. Today, I’m going to examine who I believe are three most likely candidates for the Republican presidential nomination.

Chris Christie is the governor of New Jersey who just recently won his reelection, as I pointed out in my last blog entry. Christie has plenty of traits that will help him in the 2016 election. He is seen as a moderate by many in the United States. The fact that he is a Republican governor in a traditionally Democratic state demonstrates this. People also like Christie’s straight-shooting no-nonsense personality. In a world filled with politicians who speak in the most politically correct ways possible, it can definitely feel refreshing to listen to Christie speak straight. Christie might have trouble in the Republican primary election, however. He has recently drawn flak among his own party members for complimenting Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy and his status as a moderate might alienate him among other conservatives in the primary.

Rand Paul is a senator from Kentucky who draws considerable support from the Tea Party. Paul is very popular among the right-wing of the Republican Party and is regarded as the face of the Tea Party; having Tea Party support will help him tremendously in the primary election. He is also the son of famous libertarian Ron Paul; this connection will surely help him draw votes from libertarian voters across party lines. However, I think that Paul’s tea party label will be detrimental to his success in a general election. In order to win, Paul would need to attract independent and even some Democratic voters; being labeled the face of a far-right political group does not make this an easy process.

Finally, there is Marco Rubio, a tea party senator from the state of Florida. Like Rand Paul, Rubio is known for his affiliation with the tea party, which is helpful in consolidating the conservative voting base. Rubio’s biggest advantage, in my opinion, is his minority status. Rubio is a Cuban-American and will be able to sway a large number of minority voters. In my opinion, the minority voting gap is the GOP’s biggest problem right now; Rubio will be able to use the GOP’s greatest weakness as his greatest advantage. Rubio has done a lot of work regarding immigration policy in the United States; though this will help draw minority voters, this will also turn off several conservative voters in the primary election.

I think Chris Christie is the GOP’s best bet to win the 2016 presidential election. If the Republican Party nominates anybody but Christie then the party is shooting itself in the foot. Rubio and Paul are solid candidates for the primary elections where it is advantageous to be farther to the right on the political spectrum. However, I think that they will be seen as too extreme by the general voting populace and will fail to defeat their Democratic opponent if they receive the nomination. Chris Christie is seen as a moderate and as the Republican Party’s best shot at taking the White House. However, the political world is a fluid one, and anything can happen between now and 2016; how could have thought that a junior senator from Illinois could upset the heavily favored Hillary Clinton in 2008? The 2016 Republican Primaries are anybody’s game.